基于FESA/TRIZ的机械产品创新设计方法

机械产品的设计一直注重于市场需求和产品功能的开发，随着科学和技术的发展，环境因素变得越来越重要。 提出一种基于功能一环境一结构分析( FESA)与TRIZ的机械产品创新设计方法，通过分析机械产品结构之间的功能要素 以及功能要素与环境要素的相互作用关系，确定机械产品中存在的问题。建立根原因模型图，寻找结构设计上的不足和 缺陷，利用TRIZ创新理论来实现机械产品的改进创新。通过污水处理系统的创新设计实例验证了该方法的可行性。     

地震后家庭幸福指数研究

2008年5月12日，举国震动的汶川大地震打破了平静，灾区人民的生命财产遭受巨大损失。灾后重建，八方支援，灾区人民找回失去的幸福。文章采用问卷调查地震灾区重建后家庭幸福感状况，从物质生活幸福感、环境幸福感和精神生活幸福感三因子反映地震后家庭幸福指数，构建因子模型，以期向爱心人士提供灾后重建的家庭幸福感的可靠信息。     

青岛市乡村休闲旅游 SWOT 分析研究

运用SWOT 分析法对青岛市乡村休闲旅游发展进行分析，结果显示：青岛具有资源丰富、经济发达、交通便利等优势，但同时也存在认识水平不高、农村基础设施落后、产品同质化严重、季节性明显、人才缺乏等劣势；面临旅游新热点形成、政府出台鼓励政策、新型农村社区的建设等新的发展机遇，但周边地区的竞争、生态环境的恶化也对其构成了威胁。在此基础上，提出了提高认识水平、完善基础设施、打造特色品牌、保护资源、培养人才等可行性建议。     

海峡两岸休闲农业合作相关主体行为的博弈分析

随着海峡两岸休闲农业合作的逐步发展，各相关主体之间的博弈也逐渐显现。在此过程中，涉及的主要行为主体有地方政府、农户以及台商企业。文章从各主体的利益行为分析出发，构建并分析政府与台商企业、台商企业与农户之间的动态博弈。分析表明：在博弈的过程中，政府处于主动和有利的地位，但其存在不规范行为；台商企业基于趋利的本性，在与政府之间的博弈会展开“寻租”行为，在与农户之间的博弈以牺牲农户的利益来实现其收益最大化；农户与台商企业的博弈相对处于弱势地位，加之其有限理性和知识能力有限，自身利益难以得到保障；为实现各主体利益最大化的可持续发展，应建立健全相关法律法规；完善政府的服务职能；构建合理的利益分配形式。     

Designing centralized waiting lists for attachment to a primary care provider: Considerations from a logic analysis

Access to a regular primary care provider is essential to quality care. In Canada, where 15 % of patients are unattached (i.e., without a regular provider), centralized waiting lists (CWLs) help attach patients to a primary care provider (family physician or nurse practitioner). Previous studies reveal mechanisms needed for CWLs to work, but focus mostly on CWLs for specialized health care. We aim to better understand how to design CWLs for unattached patients in primary care.In this study, a logic analysis compares empirical evidence from a qualitative case study of CWLs for unattached patients in seven Canadian provinces to programme theory derived from a realist review on CWLs. Data is analyzed using context-intervention-mechanism-outcome configurations.Results identify mechanisms involved in three components of CWL design: patient registration, patient prioritization, and patient assignment to a provider for attachment. CWL programme theory is revised to integrate mechanisms specific to primary care, where patients, rather than referring providers, are responsible for registering on the CWL, where prioritization must consider a broad range of conditions and characteristics, and where long-term acceptability of attachment is important. The study provides new insight into mechanisms that enable CWLs for unattached patients to work.     

The exponentiated power exponential regression model with different regression structures: application in nursing data

We define the exponentiated power exponential distribution and propose a regression model with different systematic structures based on the new distribution. We show that the new regression model can be applied to dispersion data since it represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models some widely-known regression models. It then can be used more effectively in the analysis of real data. We use maximum likelihood estimation and derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. Some global-influence measurements are also investigated and simulation studies are performed to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates. We provide an application of the regression model with four systematic structures to nursing activities score data in the Unit of the Medical Clinic of University of São Paulo (USP) Hospital.     

Availability analysis for general repairable systems with repair time threshold

Availability analysis is an important issue in many practical fields. This paper investigates the availability for general repairable systems with repair time threshold. Based on practical applications, a repair time threshold is introduced. If the period of a repair is less than a predefined time threshold, then the system may be considered as working during this period, i.e., the effect of the repair could be neglected. Otherwise, if the period of a repair is longer than the given threshold, then the system is considered as working from the beginning of the system failure until the repair time exceeding the threshold, i.e., the time point of the system down could be delayed. We consider both constant and random repair time threshold. This paper valuates the user-perceived availability, when the user does not experience any service interruption because the duration of repair is too short. The results can be applied in reliability engineering, queueing theory and many other fields. A numerical example for ventilator system is presented to demonstrate the application of the developed approach.     

Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

A novel approach based on multiple correspondence analysis for monitoring social networks with categorical attributed data

In in most cases, the distribution of communications is unknown and one may summarize social network communications with categorical attributes in a contingency table. Due to the categorical nature of the data and a large number of features, there are many parameters to be considered and estimated in the model. Hence, the accuracy of estimators decreases. To overcome the problem of high dimensionality and unknown communications distribution, multiple correspondence analysis is used to reduce the number of parameters. Then the rescaled data are studied in a Dirichlet model in which the parameters should be estimated. Moreover, two control charts, Hotelling’s T² and multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), are developed to monitor the parameters of the Dirichlet distribution. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies in terms of average run length criterion. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real case.